Probabilities: Not By Any Statistician (June 20, 2009. Issue 6.)

EXPERIMENT: “Measuring Probability of Actual Desperation Based on Internet-postings”
(3/14/09 – 3/15/09)
EXPERIMENT SUBJECT: “Humor Tintey”


need $2500 this week - m4m - 21 (Back Bay)
Reply to: pers-yvcgk-1075378774@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]
Date: 2009-03-14, 8:49PM EDT


Title explains it all, if there is anyone out there who wants to help a young gay man, he can do housework, spring cleaning, anything you need. Please contact me ASAP. I will have no where to go at the end of the week. :( I am desperate.

* Location: Back Bay
* it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

PostingID: 1075378774


Initial Remarks
This experiment should not be run based on computations in order to yield a result. It is far more psychological. Furthermore, this particular experiment was frightening.

Purpose
To establish the legitimacy of desperation expressed in Internet posting.

Procedure
Find a posting and respond – subsequently, determine extent of what subject will do for pursuit. Push – at all costs – to determine the truth.

Materials
Computer with Internet-access and an e-mail client

Control Group
Maintain a consistent voice, name, and personal information in e-mail responses.

Hypothesis
With the right amount of care to adopt the right voice for e-mail responses, the subject will do anything to lift his desperation.

Data (3/14/09 – 3/15/09)

On Sat, Mar 14, 2009 at 9:18 PM, Sic Itur Ad Astra <sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com> wrote:

** CRAIGSLIST ADVISORY --- AVOID SCAMS BY DEALING LOCALLY
** Avoid: wiring money, cross-border deals, work-at-home
** Beware: cashier checks, money orders, escrow, shipping
** More Info: http://www.craigslist.org/about/scams.html

What will you do for it, exactly?

(Notes: be brief and leave room for a broad response.)


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:21 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

I will do anything. House work, Gardening, ANYTHING. I was recently laid off, have student loans, and am about to get evicted. I really need the money by Thursday.

(Notes: the subject has rather high expectations to get that kind of money in less than a week for house chores and some blow jobs.)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:25 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

How bought a straight suck and fuck?

(Notes: set up an easy situation.)


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:29 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

are you safe?

(Notes: now, make this anything but an easy situation for the subject.)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:34 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

No - HIV pos. Also interested in bareback.
Why else would I offer that much money for a one time deal?

(Notes: will subject take a gamble his life for the needed money?)


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:40 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

Is there anything I could do to make the $2500. I don't want to get HIV. I am just so desperate I can't even begin to tell you. You don't even know me and I am telling you I am so lost. :(

(Notes: does not seem subject will cave to demands; yet, at least. Will continue to push further.)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:46 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

I'm sorry but this is your final chance.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:48 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

safe only and I'll do it

(Notes: keep pushing subject further.)



RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 9:56 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

I'm sorry, but it's just not the same for me.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:02 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

Not the same for you how? I would never have un safe sex with anyone. I am willing to do anything but I don't want to get HIV. I want to live with no worries from this point forward. Everyone I know has left or is gone from the earth. I don't want that. I just need help. I will do anything except give away my health. Please reason with me? Please. I don't even have to disappear. If you need help with anything after this night, I can help. I will do anything.

(Notes: there is still ample room to keep pushing. The subject is still clearly desperate and near a state of begging.)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:06 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

I'm sorry, but I don't have the money to give you then.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:07 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

Is bareback the only way you'll do it?

(Notes: it seems subject will soon cave into demands?)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:09 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

Absolutely.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:11 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

How old are you? How big are you? pics?

(Notes: is subject mocking me, or hoping at least for a good sexual exchange in the process?

Need to get further information, so will proceed to ask subject for details with brevity and name myself with an initial)


RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:13 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

You're considering it now?
Why don't you tell me some more stuff about yourself. And what this situation is.
A.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sat 3/14/09 10:40 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

I dropped out of MIT to work and make money, I was working as a legislative aide for a local organization, was recently laid off. Lost my mother when I was 4 and my father just a year ago. I don't have any family to turn to. I don't have any friends in a position to lend. I don't want to be homeless. I don't want to contract HIV and I don't want to have any worries but life is full of worries and so one lives, stronger day by day. The days now can't make me any stronger. I feel like a rock, a mount, capable of anything, yet as the days fly by through my hands, I have nothing to show for it. I just need help from someone or something. I'm smart, willing, beyond normal and succeed at everything I do. But I am lost now and I am desperate.


(Notes: subject is not mocking me; subject is truly lost in desperation for the $2500 sum.

Subject seems willing to take a gamble on his mortality at the current moment for what he needs. But I need to get some more specific information: will he really contract HIV for the money? I will let a day pass and measure the legitimacy of subject.)

-1 Day Later

RE: 2500 dollars
From: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)
Sent: Sun 3/15/09 3:27 PM
To: huminty@gmail.com

What will you do if you can't get the money in time?
A.


Re: 2500 dollars
From: Humor Tintey (huminty@gmail.com)
Sent: Sun 3/15/09 4:39 PM
To: Sic Itur Ad Astra (sic.ituradastra@hotmail.com)

End up homeless....I have no idea. My landlord will sue me for my full lease term and then I will be screwed. Thank you for messaging me back. I hope I can come up with it, I have no possibilities at this point and will do anything.

(Notes: The answer is yes.

Termination of experiment 3/14/09. No HIV or $2500 currently available to give Humor and prolonging the experiment from here unnecessary. Data sufficient for closing remarks.)


Conclusion
Drawing a conclusion from this experiment is rather simple:

The prevailing idea that Generation Y-ers are the generation of entitlement is, indeed, the most exaggerated and most demeaning fallacy of our new millennium.

In fact, the generation can only be desperate in the wake of broken circumstance.